conditional probability
e0af79ad53a336b4c4b4f7e2a68eb609-Paper-Conference.pdf
Humans have a powerful and mysterious capacity to reason. Working through a set of mental steps enables us to make inferences we would not be capable of making directly even though we get no additional data from the world. Similarly, when large language models generate intermediate steps (a chain of thought) before answering a question, they often produce better answers than they would directly. We investigate why and how chain-of-thought reasoning is useful in language models, testing the hypothesis that reasoning is effective when training data consists of overlapping local clusters of variables that influence each other strongly. These training conditions enable the chaining of accurate local inferences to estimate relationships between variables that were not seen together in training.